Dallas-Fort Worth is no stranger to extreme weather. Many people would guess that tornadoes are the most common weather catastrophes in North Texas and with good reason: the state averages more than 100 tornadoes each year. Regardless of what you believe about the causes of climate change, the fact remains that Texas is seeing more extreme weather — and it’s only going to continue.

According to a researcher at Texas Tech University, Texas will see more heavy rains, flooding, and droughts over the next 25 years. There’s also bad news for people looking for relief from hot summers: the weather is only going to get hotter. Here’s what else we can expect.

Flooding Along the Trinity River Could Cause Displacement

Rain seems like it should be good news in an area particularly prone to drought. But in North Texas, rainstorms tend to dump heavy rains in a short period of time, which the clay-based soil can’t quickly absorb. That leads to flooding, especially in areas along the Trinity River. Since the Trinity River runs east to west through the entire length of both Dallas and Tarrant County, that amount of flooding can cause a significant amount of property damage.

Many of the areas located along the Trinity River, including Irving, North Arlington, Downtown Dallas, and Downtown Fort Worth would likely see greater flooding, which could cause people to leave for northern areas like McKinney and Keller instead. That could make such already pricey suburbs even more expensive. Interstate 30 runs parallel to the Trinity River and covers it in places like Rockwall, which could become flooded and impassible.

Increased Drought Puts Rural Areas at Risk of Wildfires

Dallas-Fort Worth is at risk for serious droughts, too. Recent climate predictions see a warm, dry spring for Texas, and winter rains may or may not have been enough to ward off a drought. A drought in North Texas can lead to wildfires, such as the wildfire in Parker County just west of Fort Worth, which destroyed more than 2,100 acres. Droughts would place rural areas outside city limits at greater risk of wildfires.

Hotter Temperatures

If you hate the heat in Dallas, you’re not likely to see any relief over the next 25 years. The combination of urbanization and long-term warming makes the city regions of the Metroplex most likely to see increased temperatures. Average temperatures have been trending steadily upward over the past hundred years in Dallas, from an average 65 degrees a hundred years ago to a predicted possible average in the low 70s by 2050. Dallas suffers from the so-called “heat island” effect, which means that dense city development with man-made building materials absorbs more heat than soil and natural surfaces. That heat doesn’t dissipate quickly. 

Even though the increased average temperature in the low 70s sounds comfortable, that doesn’t reflect what high summer temperatures would be. DFW summer temperatures are already close to a dangerous point for human health, according to a study in the journal Science referenced in the Dallas News article. An increase in high temperatures means more people could die each year — as many as 24 per 100,000 people each year — or 600 people, based on the city population. Considering the fact that Dallas is already expected to face higher electricity costs due to shortages this year, higher temperatures would cause the city’s most vulnerable populations to cut back on air conditioning use, leading to more fatalities.

Property insurance costs will also continue to go up in response to extreme weather events such as hail, tornadoes, and flooding. Severe droughts also cause foundation damage, which can require expensive repairs.